The Ultimate Fighting Championship’s return from an off week will come with a strong slate of prelims on Saturday at Miami-Dade Arena in Miami. Ranked competition at middleweight leads the way at UFC 287, as Kelvin Gastelum looks to break a rough skid and return from a lost 2022 against Chris Curtis in an excellently matched pairing at 185 pounds. One spot down, Luana Pinheiro challenges Michelle Waterson-Gomez at women’s strawweight in what might be the best opportunity for a statement win among these fights. Some solid prospects dot the rest of the card, led by Joseph Pyfer, Ignacio Bahamondes and intriguing strawweight newcomer Jaqueline Amorim.
Middleweights
#15 MW | Kelvin Gastelum (16-8, 11-8 UFC) vs. #14 MW | Chris Curtis (30-9, 4-1 UFC)ODDS: Gastelum (-125), Curtis (+105)
Still somehow just 31 years old, it will be interesting to see if Gastelum can turn things around after a lost 2022. Gastelum came out of nowhere to win his season of “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2013, upsetting the much more hyped Uriah Hall and quickly becoming a promotional favorite. With the UFC looking to make inroads into Mexico, pushing a young Mexican-American talent like Gastelum that dropped into its proverbial lap seemed like a natural move. Gastelum kept his end of the bargain by impressing in his fights, to the point that he was on the fringes of contender status by the time he reached his January 2015 fight against Tyron Woodley. That was where the weight issues that would come to define much of Gastelum’s career first came home to roost. Gastelum missed weight by nine pounds and was hospitalized, yet was also somehow cleared to fight and lose in an understandably flat performance. After a few false starts, the UFC finally convinced Gastelum to ply his trade at 185 pounds full-time, at which point he went on a bit of a strange run in retrospect. Gastelum quickly ascended to contender status, but it was mostly thanks to facing big-name veterans just as they entered their late-career slides, capped by a close win over Ronaldo Souza in 2018. Gastelum then put in the performance of his career against Israel Adesanya for the interim title, but he has now been looking to recapture that magic for four years, as the Adesanya fight started a skid of five fights in six losses. Admittedly, his clearest step down in competition saw him handle Ian Heinisch without much of an issue, which has made it all the more frustrating to see him attempt to coast on his talent against better opponents. The Adesanya fight aside, Gastelum has mostly been the same fighter for years, throwing volume without much of a clear plan and seemingly relying on his tools to see him through despite his recent lack of success. It has now been nearly 20 months since Gastelum’s last fight—a main event loss to Jared Cannonier. Perhaps he can show some new wrinkles here in a tricky litmus test against Curtis.
While Gastelum was a prodigy who quickly found UFC success, Curtis has taken the complete opposite path. “The Action Man” was already a seasoned vet heading into his 2018 win on Dana White’s Contender Series. Despite an impressive knockout, Curtis still was not offered a contract, which led to the first of a few reconsidered retirements over the next few years. However, Curtis chugged along as a journeyman in the best possible sense—he strung together four wins in the course of just six months to kick off his 2021 campaign—until the late-notice UFC call finally came; and Curtis made good on an opportunity that was years in the making. After his UFC debut saw him score a knockout of Phil Hawes in Madison Square Garden, Curtis turned around to beat Brendan Allen less than a month later and became a going concern at 185 pounds. He attempted the same trick in the middle of 2022, but only succeeded in the first leg. He handled Rodolfo Vieira without much difficulty in June, but a July loss to Jack Hermansson served as a reminder that Curtis’ crafty game could be neutralized by someone mindful with some clear athletic advantages. A December win over Joaquin Buckley was another impressive example of how Curtis can get things done. As someone who has improved through sheer experience, Curtis is hard to hit clean while also finding more defensive openings than the average fighter, which in this case led to a sudden knockout of Buckley to turn things around in the second round. That also makes for an interesting matchup in this assignment. Gastelum has all the physical advantages on his side but figures to take a much different approach than Hermansson and meet Curtis on head-on. There is a solid chance it works. Between the layoff and a strong recent schedule, Gastelum’s current floor is hard to calibrate, and his seemingly inhuman level of durability should help him take advantage of Curtis’ patience without the usual downside. However, between Curtis’ sneakily effective defensive wrestling and the fact that Gastelum leaves so much on the table in terms of defense, the bet is that former can keep the good vibes going in a tough fight. The pick is Curtis via decision.
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Curtis vs. Gastelum
Pinheiro vs. Waterson-Gomez
Pyfer vs. Meerschaert
Williams vs. Sherman
Godinez vs. Calvillo
Bahamondes vs. Ogden
Nuerdanbieke vs. Garcia
Amorim vs. Hughes