The Ultimate Fighting Championship’s return Down Under on Saturday has the expected local flavor dotting a solid eight-bout preliminary slate. Some late scratches to the UFC 284 main card sapped these prelims of some of their depth, but the rightful top two fights take center stage. In the featured slot is an intriguing mirror match of sorts. Top Australian light heavyweight prospect Tyson Pedro and UFC returnee Modestas Bukauskas each made their way back from major knee injuries in 2022, and both get by far their toughest tests since here. Right beneath them is another compelling battle of craftiness versus horsepower, as Australia’s Joshua Culibao looks to gameplan his way to another win against knockout artist Melsik Baghdasaryan at featherweight. Beyond that are a lot of fights featuring a mix of local products and UFC newcomers in which the stakes might not be particularly high. However, all figure to live up to the legacy of entertaining violence that has marked UFC cards when they swing down to this part of the world.
Light Heavyweights
Tyson Pedro (9-3, 5-3 UFC) vs. Modestas Bukauskas (13-5, 1-3 UFC)ODDS: Pedro (-240), Bukauskas (+200)
Some late shuffling results in an interesting fight between two light heavyweight prospects essentially in the same spot. Australia’s Pedro was a particularly raw prospect by the standards of UFC signees in 2016 but got off to a hot start upon hitting the Octagon, leveraging his ground and clinch skills into quick wins over Khalil Rountree and Paul Craig. Sensing the opportunity to create a regional star, the UFC immediately rocketed Pedro up the ladder, at which point the wheels fell off. Pedro lost three of his next four and looked overmatched at times—a run that culminated with his suffering a major knee injury in a knockout loss to Mauricio Rua. The injury led to a cascade of issues that kept Pedro out of action for roughly three and a half years, but he has looked sharp in his return, showing some comfort as a striker and taking apart Isaac Villanueva and Harry Hunsucker. Of course, Pedro was clearly expected to win those fights, so now it is time to ramp things up a bit against a late replacement and UFC returnee in Bukauskas. The UFC’s first Lithuanian-born male fighter, Bukauskas initially came to the promotion in 2020 with a significant amount of hype, though there figured to be some growing pains before “The Baltic Gladiator” found consistent success. Bukauskas often relied on his size and physicality to wear out opponents—advantages that likely would not be there at the UFC level. Indeed, Bukauskas’ first UFC stint was a mixed bag. He clearly figured some things out from fight to fight but was a victim of some difficult matchmaking before suffering a major knee injury of his own in the last bout on his contract. Fortunately, Bukauskas was back in action a little over a year later and essentially picked up where he left off on the regional scene. There are still a lot of the same concerns as to how he will fare against better competition, but it is also nice to see him snap back so quickly from an injury that looked so gruesome. As far as this fight goes, there is the potential for something unexpectedly weird to happen. The defense of both men relies a lot on being isolated by their reach, and this is the rare fight where neither fighter has his usual size advantage. Pedro is a quicker and more mobile competitor, so he should be able to get off to a sharper start, and from there, it becomes anyone’s guess as to how it goes. Pedro might be able to lean on those athletic advantages for the long haul, but he also has yet to win a fight outside of the first round or prove he can keep up any sort of pace. Bukauskas still has plenty of questions to answer against opponents at this level, but he has proven he can string together three strong rounds, which is enough to give him the nod in a fight that mostly looks even on paper. The pick is Bukauskas via decision.
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Pedro vs. Bukauskas
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