Fabricio Werdum has leaned on rapidly improving standup skills of late. | Photo: Sherdog.com
“The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America” and the headlining spot on the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s first show in Mexico were supposed to vault heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez into stardom in the Spanish-speaking world. Events fell into an all-too-familiar pattern, however, as Velasquez suffered yet another injury and was replaced by power-puncher extraordinaire and real-life “Rocky” story Mark Hunt. Challenger Fabricio Werdum will now face Hunt for the interim strap, with the winner set to face Velasquez whenever he can return from his latest brush with mortality.
Let us take a look at each UFC 180 “Werdum vs. Hunt” matchup:
INTERIM UFC HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
Fabricio Werdum (18-5-1, 6-2 UFC) vs. Mark Hunt (10-8-1, 5-2-1 UFC)THE MATCHUP: Following yet another injury to undisputed champion Velasquez, unlikely contender Hunt steps in on short notice to face the surging Werdum. Hunt has come a very long way from the world champion kickboxer who moonlighted as an MMA competitor in Pride Fighting Championships and other shows during the Japanese boom years, most recently drawing against Antonio Silva in an instant classic and brutally knocking out Roy Nelson in September. Werdum has rattled off four straight wins since making his return to the UFC in February 2012, capping his triumphant rise with a dominant decision over Travis Browne in April. This should be a tremendous fight between two of the best heavyweights in the world with everything to gain and nothing to lose.
Werdum is a poster child for the long-term development of a fighter under the direction of skilled, experienced coaches, most notably former Chute Boxe impresario Rafael Cordeiro. A talented and athletic but one-dimensional grappler early in his career, Werdum has slowly but surely added a venomous striking game and surprisingly effective takedowns to his repertoire, all while improving his conditioning to the point where he can fight five hard rounds at pace. His striking game revolves around hard punch-kick combinations at range, particularly a jab-straight-middle kick sequence with which he repeatedly tagged Browne. His jab is quick, sharp and constant, and he utilizes good circular movement to keep himself in the center of the cage.
Most of Werdum’s striking offense comes as he moves forward, and he can cover a surprising amount of ground as he attempts to push his opponent toward the fence. Werdum does some of his best work in the clinch, where his height gives him great leverage, and he owns clean, clever technique at close range. He has also drastically improved as a wrestler and showcases excellent drive and slick finishes on his preferred singles and doubles. On the ground, Werdum is one of the greatest MMA grapplers of all-time; his guard is incredible, his top control slick and given an opening, he will latch onto a submission and finish it with authority. Moreover, he is one of the craftiest fighters of this generation, with a deep bag of clever tricks and trash talking to force his opponent into his preferred kind of fight.
Hunt, on the other hand, is a throwback sprawl-and-brawler with vicious power, a great chin and just-good-enough wrestling and grappling to not lose the fight outside his wheelhouse. He does masterful work at range, with a full command of the intangibles -- distance, timing, angles and rhythm -- that separate good strikers from great ones, and make no mistake, Hunt absolutely deserves to be counted among the latter. He is essentially a puncher who can sling leather both moving forward and countering off his back foot or in the pocket, although he does his best work when he pressures his opponent toward the fence. Hunt is a perfectly competent defensive wrestler and grappler and even works in the occasional takedown of his own, although nobody will confuse him with an NCAA All-American or Abu Dhabi Combat Club Submission Wrestling World Championships gold medalist.
BETTING ODDS: Werdum (-530), Hunt (+350)
THE PICK: Considering the fact that the line opened with Werdum at -230 and Hunt at +180, the betting odds have gotten more than a bit out of hand, and I would be surprised if a substantial amount of late money did not come in on Hunt. That line movement, however, reflects the brutal conditions under which Hunt has taken this fight. He started his three-week camp at more than 300 pounds, while Werdum has been training at altitude for the most conditioned fighter in the history of the heavyweight division. From a matchup perspective, this could be rough for Werdum in the opening round. He has a tendency to get hit a fair amount before he finds his rhythm, as does Hunt, but considering the power disparity that is a much larger problem for the Brazilian. Werdum has an excellent chin of his own -- one errant uppercut from Junior dos Santos aside -- and should be able to survive the early onslaught, wear down his less conditioned opponent with volume and clinch work and eventually work his takedowns and top game. Werdum by rear-naked choke submission in the fourth round is the pick.
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