Strikeforce ‘Overeem vs. Werdum’ Preview

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Strikeforce “Overeem vs. Werdum” features the second installment of the promotion’s heavyweight grand prix on Saturday at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, as four heavyweights vie to advance to the semifinals.

Antonio Silva’s upset of Fedor Emelianenko and Sergei Kharitonov’s knockout of Andrei Arlovski in the first two grand prix bouts resulted in a shocking start to the tournament in February. With Emelianenko out and the UFC’s subsequent acquisition of Strikeforce in March, huge opportunities await the winner of the tourney.

The rematch between Alistair Overeem and Fabricio Werdum might be the key to determining that winner. Of course, Josh Barnett and Brett Rogers, slated for the other half of the card, will have something to say about that, as will Silva and Kharitonov. With the streaking Overeem a clear favorite in an Emelianenko-free bracket, all we can be certain of thus far is that anything can and probably will happen.

Here is a closer look at the Strikeforce “Overeem vs. Werdum” event, with analysis and picks.

Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix Quarterfinal
Alistair Overeem (34-11, 1 NC) vs. Fabricio Werdum (14-4-1)

The Matchup: Overeem has been a destructive force of late, sandwiching nine consecutive finishes -- eight of them in the first round -- around his no contest with Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic. Rangy and powerful on the feet, Overeem’s potent striking is not just the one-two generic approach. He punishes opponents with knees from the clinch, kicks and hammering combinations from virtually every range.

Werdum’s craftiness is largely backed up by a top-notch jiu-jitsu and submission game. After making Emelianenko tap with the triangle heard ’round the world in 2010, Werdum has realized the value in a better diet and a renewed approach to training. His standup is functional and usually does enough to get him into a clinch or attempt a takedown. However, against better strikers with takedown defense, he has often been negated and can seem ineffective, vainly trying to get the fight to the ground.

Werdum submitted Overeem in 2006 via kimura, exposing the Dutchman’s still-developing ground game. This time, Werdum figures to have an exceptionally tougher task in front of him. Overeem figures to be elusive and explosive, forcing Werdum to close the distance, something that is going to be quite difficult given Overeem’s good timing with defending takedown attempts and the big bombs he throws from every angle imaginable.

There is always the chance that Werdum could catch lightning in a bottle and score a submission, but that is pretty much his only way to win here. Overeem has more options.

Werdum is durable and crafty, and he will likely have to take some time to dial in Overeem’s timing while not getting caught with something huge on the feet. He might even hang around for a moment or two by threatening a submission or controlling from the top. With that said, Overeem is simply too dangerous and explosive at this point, and he will have too many weapons to bring to bear.

The Pick: Overeem by third-round knockout or one-sided decision.

Continue Reading » Next Fight: Josh Barnett vs. Brett Rogers