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UFC 103 Preview: The Main Card

Franklin vs. Belfort

As if Floyd Mayweather Jr. didn’t hate the UFC enough as is, he can expect this Saturday’s UFC 103 event to take a big chunk out of his pay-per-view bonus for fighting Juan Manuel Marquez in Las Vegas the same night the UFC sets up shop in Dallas. Mayweather’s financial fears come with good reason, too. The UFC lineup marks the return of fan favorite Vitor Belfort against former middleweight champion Rich Franklin in a 195-pound catch-weight bout that may be an unconventional main event but should make for top-shelf violence regardless.

Backing up the headliner is the return of Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic, who will take on top heavyweight prospect Junior dos Santos, and the UFC debut of standout British welterweight Paul Daley, who has to tangle with premier contender Martin Kampmann. Rounding out the main card is a welterweight scrap between returning UFC veteran Frank Trigg and the uber-talented Josh Koscheck as well as a critical lightweight tilt pitting Tyson Griffin’s massive legs against Hermes Franca’s cinder block right hand.

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Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort

The Breakdown: The weight-class limbo continues for Franklin, who will look to spoil Belfort’s return to the UFC in a 195-pound catch-weight contest. What makes this bout interesting is that for the umpteenth time, Belfort looks like a rejuvenated fighter thanks to knockout wins over Terry Martin and Matt Lindland. More importantly, Belfort has the edge in speed and footwork over Franklin, who has developed a somewhat predictable style that overemphasizes his powerful left body kick and equally dangerous straight left.

While those are Franklin’s best weapons, he leaves himself wide-open for counters on both (see how Wanderlei Silva eventually found those openings in their bout at UFC 99). Belfort is a far more fundamentally sound boxer than Silva. His stiff southpaw jab could create problems for Franklin, who doesn’t do a good job of controlling range with his own jab. This fight certainly doesn’t favor Franklin on the feet, but Belfort has struggled against ground-and-pound-minded opponents in the past and Franklin has shown nasty striking on the mat.

The ground part of that strategy may prove difficult for Franklin, however. Belfort is hardly a free takedown, and Franklin himself is typically hesitant to hit the mat. If Franklin can’t disrupt Belfort’s rhythm on the feet with takedowns or clinch work, his chin will eventually catch up to him and Belfort has long been one of the best finishers in the game.

The X Factor: Matching southpaws against each other always yields interesting results, and both fighters could find it difficult to effectively employ their favored tactics. The other variable looming over this fight is Belfort’s brain, which is about as stable as an Iranian election. It doesn’t take much to throw Belfort off his game, and Franklin is as focused and committed a fighter as you’ll ever find. “Ace” needs to make this an uncomfortable fight for Belfort. If he allows Belfort to sit back, create angles and measure punches, this fight will be a painfully one-sided proposition for Cincinnati’s favorite son.

The Bottom Line: Trying to predict what Belfort will do is as pointless as watching a Rob Schneider movie in search of a laugh. With that said, Belfort has finally started doing all the things fans have been begging him to do for years: stay patient, work the jab and use all of his skills. Franklin won’t have an answer for Belfort’s superior boxing and massive hand speed advantage, and by the time he does go for a takedown, he’ll find it far easier said than done. This one ends with Franklin starched on the canvas and Belfort instantaneously christened as a premier contender in the middleweight class.
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