For Penn, Lightweight is Right Weight
Jason Probst Aug 12, 2008
B.J.
Penn (Pictures)’s clearly excited about the
prospect of rematching UFC welterweight champion Georges
St. Pierre (Pictures) in December, but the prospect of
the bout reveals far more potential downside than payoff for Penn,
and the sport itself.
That’s because mixed martial arts, despite its phenomenal growth of late, still hasn’t produced a champion with a title reign approaching any memorable ones in boxing -- the sport that MMA has supplanted in so many ways for so many people. You don’t grow a huge tree by replanting it every couple years, and the same could be said for making guys like Penn into superstars with major crossover appeal.
For Penn to challenge GSP on Dec. 27, which is the rumored date for
their meeting (and very likely, given industry chatter), the bout
brings up a host of potential blowback problems, win or lose for
the lightweight champion.
Title defenses build a legacy
In the sweet science, it’s more common for a champ to build a string of title defenses, simply because the relative skill levels of each man are far more consistently expressed -- a Larry Holmes is able to make 20 defenses simply because he’s a much better boxer than his challengers, with the requisite conditioning and motivation to soldier on through rough moments.
The consequences of “getting caught” are still grave, but he is less likely to be put in an awful position in which his advantages dissipate, like a wrestler on their back, or a jiu-jitsu ace stuck in a standup battle because he doesn’t have world-class takedowns. When Holmes ate a monster right hand from Earnie Shavers -- who was probably the greatest single-shot hitter in the history of the sport -- he was miraculously able to get up off the deck, bounce to a neutral corner, and get key moments of recovery time, then resume killing the clock en route to a stoppage four rounds later.
In MMA, that probably wouldn’t happen. Getting caught means you’re in trouble. Take the equivalent of Shavers’ right hand, say, a bull’s-eye kick from a Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (Pictures), and it would take a superhuman effort to recover from that while avoiding a ruthless follow-up barrage while you’re dazed looking at the ceiling (unless you’re Mark Hunt (Pictures), whose chin is made of otherworldly stuff).
That is part of MMA’s appeal -- the sudden swings in momentum -- and if anybody has the pluck and toughness to survive a few of these, it’s Penn. Even though he’d be a 4-1 or better favorite against any current lightweight challenger, give him ten defenses, and he’ll surely have a couple of Holmes-Shavers moments. That’s what fans remember, and what grows the sport.
Think Matt Hughes-Frank Trigg (Pictures) II. A champion in trouble rallies to defend his belt, leaving an indelible highlight-reel memory. That’s memorable stuff.
Of all 39 UFC title reigns, the belts have only been defended 46 times. That’s an average of 1.17 successful defenses each time a new champ takes the throne. As far as UFC champions go, they have the shelf life of a drummer for Spinal Tap. The sport has done exceptionally well despite its rotating-door champs, but imagine how much bigger it could be if there were long-reigning title-holders?
You cannot underestimate the marketing value and exposure factor of defending a belt several times in a row. I’d say that half the people who know who Urijah Faber (Pictures) is have only seen him fight against Jens Pulver (Pictures), his most recent title defense. Penn is a well-known fighter but the folly of taking on GSP presents all sorts of potential issues.
Fallout
If Penn wins the welterweight belt, what do you do with him then? Will he be satisfied to stick around much longer outside of a rubber match with GSP? Having slain the top 170-pounder, will he be motivated to stick around for the relatively lesser competition? That’s doubtful. You risk devaluing the welterweight title when Penn is gone. And you also throw the lightweights in disarray with another dubious vacant title square-off. MMA isn’t boxing -- yet -- but the prevalence of interim and vacant titles is already an emerging trend.
Plus, there’s the good possibility that Penn fights GSP, and gets whipped, soundly. It’s still amazing that hordes of chat room revisionists recap their first bout as some sort of one-sided whipping by Penn, when in reality it was a close, hard-fought contest where Penn tired down the stretch and gave up a couple takedowns. He cut St. Pierre in the opening moments and basically jabbed and countered for three rounds -- you’d think he was Holmes and GSP was Tex Cobb. Penn put up a spirited effort, but never had GSP in trouble, and was outwrestled in addition to being even on the feet, at best.
The reality is that Penn will be at a bigger disadvantage. St. Pierre continues to improve, and in a five-round fight, he can push Penn even further, and deliver a lot of punishment in the process. Maybe that’s the kind of message Penn needs to stay in his natural weight class -- because the mileage GSP could put on the Hawaiian fighter’s body and mind might be more than Penn accrues in his next ten fights at lightweight. There is nobody at 155 that could physically dominate him, or really come close -- GSP can, and probably will.
Lightweight depth
The 155-pound division is the most stacked in the sport right now, and it’s testimony to Penn’s ability that despite this, he’d at least a 4-1 favorite over every existing challenger. If you had to bet right now that Penn would win his next lightweight fight at even odds, you’d jump on it. But what about five in a row? Or ten? That’s the fascinating question, and the right way to grow the sport as he builds a legacy of turning back challengers. Fight fans want a top dog that sends challengers home packing, sending a message of supremacy in a meaningful contest.
Penn does not lack for exciting challengers. Kenny Florian (Pictures) proved he’s the top lightweight contender with his impressive decision win over Roger Huerta (Pictures) last weekend. The vastly-improving Gray Maynard (Pictures) would bring a grinding pressure style. If Tyson Griffin (Pictures) beats Sean Sherk (Pictures) in a couple of months, he’d be on the short list, too. And this doesn’t even touch on the possibility of tough fighters currently battling it out in Dream, including Eddie Alvarez (Pictures), JZ Cavalcante, Joachim Hansen (Pictures), and a rematch with Takanori Gomi (Pictures).
And a year from now, a Faber-Penn bout would be insanely marketable and a no-lose proposition for both men, as the WEC champ will have virtually cleaned out the 145-pound division, “Kid” Yamamoto or not.
There’s plenty of fights at lightweight for Penn. The shame of it would be if he turned his back on them now that he’s finally committed himself to getting into shape. Show me a Penn with defined abs, and I’ll show you the best fighter on the planet, pound for pound. Throw him fifteen pounds north, and it’s like making Secretariat do the Belmont with an overweight jockey. He can still perform at a high level, but the added poundage only slows him down.
The Freewheeling Factor
Born into a wealthy family, Penn’s one of the richest fighters in MMA. As such, his situation is far different than most world-class competitors; he doesn’t have to take fights to keep the money rolling in lest he fall back on the hard times that defined the early career of his world-class cohorts.
Fighters get to a certain level of comfort and work to sustain it, the sting of hard times never too far in the rearview mirror. Penn has never needed to, and as such, he’s got an unpredictable streak. The UFC has very little leverage keeping him there if he’s bored.
And when he’s bored, that’s when strange things happen. After his submission victory over Hughes to take the welterweight title in 2004, Penn was in a perfect position to negotiate with the UFC, as that was the last fight on his contract. Instead, he signed with K-1 and was stripped of the title. The guy basically does what he wants, because he doesn’t really need the money.
It’s a great thing that Penn wants to fight the biggest, baddest welterweight out there (again) – but we need to be honest and assess the potential fallout of this bout happening. Will it screw up the welterweights?
Probably, if Penn wins. Does it unfairly put the lightweights on hold for several months while Penn decides what division to fight in after he wins, or even loses? Quite likely. Champ vs. champ matches are always better if you stir the pot and build toward them.
And if Penn wins, you can bet he’ll want Anderson Silva (Pictures) next. He’s a hard guy to keep in any one organization or weight division, but that’s B.J. Penn. Focused, he is nearly unbeatable against a man his size. Distracted or bored, he is a tragic figure, his own worst enemy.
Solution
Have Penn move up to welterweight only after he’s completely cleaned out the weight class. That’s 3-4 more title defenses, based on beating guys who probably will have to edge out other top-10 contenders. By then, going up in weight will be the perfect move if GSP is, expectedly, still ruling the welterweight roost.
By then, both guys will have broken Hughes’ mark of five straight title defenses (that’s a lot of ifs, but both seem dominant enough to pull it off). Let the storylines collide then, instead of squandering a superfight -- and potentially throwing two divisions into chaos -- before its time. Hate to say it, but the UFC could probably get 54.95 for that one if promoted right.
And build a storyline and title reign while you’re at it. Penn’s got the challengers at 155 to make a great run. It’d be a shame if he left the neighborhood after such an impressive return.
That’s because mixed martial arts, despite its phenomenal growth of late, still hasn’t produced a champion with a title reign approaching any memorable ones in boxing -- the sport that MMA has supplanted in so many ways for so many people. You don’t grow a huge tree by replanting it every couple years, and the same could be said for making guys like Penn into superstars with major crossover appeal.
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Title defenses build a legacy
As MMA grows, an integral -- and often overlooked -- component to
its appeal are the storylines that develop as fighters build a
legacy, particularly as champions. Given the wild twists of fate
that can happen given the small gloves and myriad of wild-card
factors in a given bout, an extended championship run in MMA is
even more impressive than in boxing. The current record for
consecutive successful defenses in the UFC is five, with Matt Hughes
(Pictures)’ first run as welterweight
king.
In the sweet science, it’s more common for a champ to build a string of title defenses, simply because the relative skill levels of each man are far more consistently expressed -- a Larry Holmes is able to make 20 defenses simply because he’s a much better boxer than his challengers, with the requisite conditioning and motivation to soldier on through rough moments.
The consequences of “getting caught” are still grave, but he is less likely to be put in an awful position in which his advantages dissipate, like a wrestler on their back, or a jiu-jitsu ace stuck in a standup battle because he doesn’t have world-class takedowns. When Holmes ate a monster right hand from Earnie Shavers -- who was probably the greatest single-shot hitter in the history of the sport -- he was miraculously able to get up off the deck, bounce to a neutral corner, and get key moments of recovery time, then resume killing the clock en route to a stoppage four rounds later.
In MMA, that probably wouldn’t happen. Getting caught means you’re in trouble. Take the equivalent of Shavers’ right hand, say, a bull’s-eye kick from a Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (Pictures), and it would take a superhuman effort to recover from that while avoiding a ruthless follow-up barrage while you’re dazed looking at the ceiling (unless you’re Mark Hunt (Pictures), whose chin is made of otherworldly stuff).
That is part of MMA’s appeal -- the sudden swings in momentum -- and if anybody has the pluck and toughness to survive a few of these, it’s Penn. Even though he’d be a 4-1 or better favorite against any current lightweight challenger, give him ten defenses, and he’ll surely have a couple of Holmes-Shavers moments. That’s what fans remember, and what grows the sport.
Think Matt Hughes-Frank Trigg (Pictures) II. A champion in trouble rallies to defend his belt, leaving an indelible highlight-reel memory. That’s memorable stuff.
Of all 39 UFC title reigns, the belts have only been defended 46 times. That’s an average of 1.17 successful defenses each time a new champ takes the throne. As far as UFC champions go, they have the shelf life of a drummer for Spinal Tap. The sport has done exceptionally well despite its rotating-door champs, but imagine how much bigger it could be if there were long-reigning title-holders?
You cannot underestimate the marketing value and exposure factor of defending a belt several times in a row. I’d say that half the people who know who Urijah Faber (Pictures) is have only seen him fight against Jens Pulver (Pictures), his most recent title defense. Penn is a well-known fighter but the folly of taking on GSP presents all sorts of potential issues.
Fallout
If Penn wins the welterweight belt, what do you do with him then? Will he be satisfied to stick around much longer outside of a rubber match with GSP? Having slain the top 170-pounder, will he be motivated to stick around for the relatively lesser competition? That’s doubtful. You risk devaluing the welterweight title when Penn is gone. And you also throw the lightweights in disarray with another dubious vacant title square-off. MMA isn’t boxing -- yet -- but the prevalence of interim and vacant titles is already an emerging trend.
Plus, there’s the good possibility that Penn fights GSP, and gets whipped, soundly. It’s still amazing that hordes of chat room revisionists recap their first bout as some sort of one-sided whipping by Penn, when in reality it was a close, hard-fought contest where Penn tired down the stretch and gave up a couple takedowns. He cut St. Pierre in the opening moments and basically jabbed and countered for three rounds -- you’d think he was Holmes and GSP was Tex Cobb. Penn put up a spirited effort, but never had GSP in trouble, and was outwrestled in addition to being even on the feet, at best.
The reality is that Penn will be at a bigger disadvantage. St. Pierre continues to improve, and in a five-round fight, he can push Penn even further, and deliver a lot of punishment in the process. Maybe that’s the kind of message Penn needs to stay in his natural weight class -- because the mileage GSP could put on the Hawaiian fighter’s body and mind might be more than Penn accrues in his next ten fights at lightweight. There is nobody at 155 that could physically dominate him, or really come close -- GSP can, and probably will.
Lightweight depth
The 155-pound division is the most stacked in the sport right now, and it’s testimony to Penn’s ability that despite this, he’d at least a 4-1 favorite over every existing challenger. If you had to bet right now that Penn would win his next lightweight fight at even odds, you’d jump on it. But what about five in a row? Or ten? That’s the fascinating question, and the right way to grow the sport as he builds a legacy of turning back challengers. Fight fans want a top dog that sends challengers home packing, sending a message of supremacy in a meaningful contest.
Penn does not lack for exciting challengers. Kenny Florian (Pictures) proved he’s the top lightweight contender with his impressive decision win over Roger Huerta (Pictures) last weekend. The vastly-improving Gray Maynard (Pictures) would bring a grinding pressure style. If Tyson Griffin (Pictures) beats Sean Sherk (Pictures) in a couple of months, he’d be on the short list, too. And this doesn’t even touch on the possibility of tough fighters currently battling it out in Dream, including Eddie Alvarez (Pictures), JZ Cavalcante, Joachim Hansen (Pictures), and a rematch with Takanori Gomi (Pictures).
And a year from now, a Faber-Penn bout would be insanely marketable and a no-lose proposition for both men, as the WEC champ will have virtually cleaned out the 145-pound division, “Kid” Yamamoto or not.
There’s plenty of fights at lightweight for Penn. The shame of it would be if he turned his back on them now that he’s finally committed himself to getting into shape. Show me a Penn with defined abs, and I’ll show you the best fighter on the planet, pound for pound. Throw him fifteen pounds north, and it’s like making Secretariat do the Belmont with an overweight jockey. He can still perform at a high level, but the added poundage only slows him down.
The Freewheeling Factor
Born into a wealthy family, Penn’s one of the richest fighters in MMA. As such, his situation is far different than most world-class competitors; he doesn’t have to take fights to keep the money rolling in lest he fall back on the hard times that defined the early career of his world-class cohorts.
Fighters get to a certain level of comfort and work to sustain it, the sting of hard times never too far in the rearview mirror. Penn has never needed to, and as such, he’s got an unpredictable streak. The UFC has very little leverage keeping him there if he’s bored.
And when he’s bored, that’s when strange things happen. After his submission victory over Hughes to take the welterweight title in 2004, Penn was in a perfect position to negotiate with the UFC, as that was the last fight on his contract. Instead, he signed with K-1 and was stripped of the title. The guy basically does what he wants, because he doesn’t really need the money.
It’s a great thing that Penn wants to fight the biggest, baddest welterweight out there (again) – but we need to be honest and assess the potential fallout of this bout happening. Will it screw up the welterweights?
Probably, if Penn wins. Does it unfairly put the lightweights on hold for several months while Penn decides what division to fight in after he wins, or even loses? Quite likely. Champ vs. champ matches are always better if you stir the pot and build toward them.
And if Penn wins, you can bet he’ll want Anderson Silva (Pictures) next. He’s a hard guy to keep in any one organization or weight division, but that’s B.J. Penn. Focused, he is nearly unbeatable against a man his size. Distracted or bored, he is a tragic figure, his own worst enemy.
Solution
Have Penn move up to welterweight only after he’s completely cleaned out the weight class. That’s 3-4 more title defenses, based on beating guys who probably will have to edge out other top-10 contenders. By then, going up in weight will be the perfect move if GSP is, expectedly, still ruling the welterweight roost.
By then, both guys will have broken Hughes’ mark of five straight title defenses (that’s a lot of ifs, but both seem dominant enough to pull it off). Let the storylines collide then, instead of squandering a superfight -- and potentially throwing two divisions into chaos -- before its time. Hate to say it, but the UFC could probably get 54.95 for that one if promoted right.
And build a storyline and title reign while you’re at it. Penn’s got the challengers at 155 to make a great run. It’d be a shame if he left the neighborhood after such an impressive return.
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