Frank Mir vs. Mirko Filipovic
Brian Knapp:
Cro Cop. I think he matches up well with Mir, and if Mir can't get him to the ground, I can't envision him winning the fight. Mirko by TKO late in round one or early in round two, provided his eye injury does not hamper his efforts.
Freddie DeFreitas:
Mir will look to showcase some of his self proclaimed improved standup against the Croatian legend. A slow start from Filipovic will only add to Mir's false sense of success. Expect a return to highlight reel form for the former Pride superstar. Filipovic by KO -- round 2.
Marcelo Alonso:
I believe Mir has a clear advantage. Even with Cro Cop having superb takedown defense, he is no longer the old Cro Cop we knew from Pride times, so I pick Mir by submission in round two.
Tim Leidecker:
The UFC kept Mirko’s career alive with winnable fights against Al-Turk, Perosh and Barry -- he failed the one serious test against Cigano, however. Paired with the ailments he carried over from the Barry bout plus a recently sustained eye injury in training and you have Mir as the favorite to win. Mir via TKO in the second round.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Ryan Bader
Brian Knapp:
Bader by decision. I see him catching Nogueira with big punches standing, getting him to the ground and grinding him out on points.
Marcelo Alonso:
It depends on which Nogueira shows up for this fight. If he comes in his normal shape I would bet on him by KO in round three.
Tim Leidecker:
Much of the outcome will depend on which ‘Minotoro’ will show up in this fight: The one that blitzed “Banha” or the one that struggled to get past Brilz. Bader has been solid in his three-year UFC career so far, but hasn’t faced anybody as remotely as dangerous as Nogueira. Bader by decision.
Matt Serra vs. Chris Lytle
Brian Knapp:
Serra by decision. Likely a mirror image of their first fight.
Freddie DeFreitas:
Coming off a knockout win, Serra will look to continue the trend by launching an unimaginable number of overhand lefts and rights in Lytle's direction. Unfortunately for Serra, Lytle isn't the stationary target Frank Trigg was and walks away with a decision win.
Marcelo Alonso:
Lytle by TKO in round two.
Lutfi Sariahmed:
The rematch of the “TUF” 4 finale shouldn't go much different than the first. Both Serra and Lytle are still basically the same fighters they were four years ago. The only thing that changes this time will be the scorecards. Serra by unanimous decision.
Tim Leidecker:
The key to this fight is activity and ring rust. Serra has fought once a year since 2005, while Lytle has had 18 bouts during that span. Their first fight has already been a close affair and was the bout Lytle credits to changing his style to become more active. Lytle by decision.
Evan Dunham vs. Sean Sherk
Freddie DeFreitas:
Dunham continues his roll and shocks the MMA world not in defeating Sherk, but by being the first man to submit him. Dunham by submission -- round three.
TJ De Santis:
Sherk has a storied career in mixed martial arts. With all of his loses coming to UFC champions, Sherk should be remembered as a legend in this sport when he hangs up his gloves for the final time. Although coming into this fight Saturday in Indianapolis, Ind., "The Muscle Shark" will be an underdog. The reason the fans and most media people are seeing this one for Dunham is based on what the undefeated lightweight has done since coming to the UFC on short notice to face Per Eklund. Dunham shows he can exchange with his advantageous reach as well as wrestle and put everything together with his sharp jiu-jitsu skills. He will have to use all of these skills perfectly should he want to beat Sherk. That said, my fellow statesman had better drop his bonus winning attitude and use what has made him stay relevant in mixed martial arts: his wrestling. If Sherk can utilize his lightning quick shot to take the fight to the floor and keep it there I see him winning. Sherk is short and compact and is close to un-armbarable. But if he stands and trades you can expect Dunham to get a decision and a quality win in his young career. I lean towards Sherk, but that's if he fights like it's 2006.
Brian Knapp:
Sherk by decision.
Lutfi Sariahmed:
We know about Sherk's accolades but by the time he gets in the cage on Saturday, it'll be more than 16 months between fights for the former lightweight champ. On top of that we saw him try his hand at boxing unsuccessfully in his last bout against Frankie Edgar and he's facing a fast rising prospect in Dunham. I like Dunham to win a convincing unanimous decision.
Marcelo Alonso:
Sherk by TKO (ground-and-pound) in round two.
Tim Leidecker:
As nondescript as his appearance, as dangerous he is in the cage -- Dunham has needed just 18 months to rise near the top of the UFC lightweight division. Sherk will do everything in his power to prove he isn’t a phase-out model just yet, but Dunham may be too well-rounded for him. Dunham by decision.
Jeremy Stephens vs. Melvin Guillard
Brian Knapp:
Guillard by decision.
Tim Leidecker:
This fight has “Slugfest” written all over it in big red letters. Both guys possess one-punch knockout power as well. While Guillard has the edge in experience and recent form, Stephens will have a reason for asking for this fight. There is already one winner if both of them bring it: the fans. Look for Stephens to upset Guillard on points in a surefire “fight of the night” candidate.
Jeff Sherwood
What a fight! Guillard mentioned that he wanted Stephens on “The Savage Dog Show” shortly after his victory over Waylon Lowe. Immediately I thought that it could be a great matchup. Both fighters have looked sharp: Stephens coming off a victory over a game Sam Stout; Guillard looking like a different fighter since joining Greg Jackson’s camp. I think Guillard is going to be able to pull the victory out by catching Stephens’ tough chin and getting a TKO in round two.