UFC 188 “Velasquez vs. Werdum” on Saturday represents another opportunity to win bragging rights and cash with your favorite fantasy MMA sites. By now, you all should know that I use Kountermove and have pocketed more than $500 with little investment; I even won $100 in a free game. How? Let us just say it was a combination of common sense and, of course, a little bit of luck. I picked up another cool $50 at UFC 187 in May. Let us see if I can make it another winning weekend and maybe help you guys out along the way.
One overriding question surrounds the UFC 188 headliner: How much will the long layoff affect Velasquez?
When picking your Kountermove team, it is nearly a forgone conclusion that you will pick a main-event fighter as part of your roster. The ability to fight for five rounds increases a team’s output and the probability of a finish. Plus, we have witnessed the offensive onslaughts Velasquez has unleashed in the past. If he can do so against Werdum, I like Velasquez to damage the Brazilian to a point where someone -- the referee, the cageside physician or his corner -- will need to save him. However, if he is off his game even a little bit, Werdum has the ability to make him pay with a slick submission or by bunching together some of his newly refined strikes. I also worry about Velasquez starting slow and putting himself too far behind on the scorecards if the bout becomes a technical affair. While a “Vai Cavalo” upset is not likely, Werdum is not a terrible play if you decide to spend big elsewhere on the card.
The answer to another burning question can either make or break your team: Which Gilbert Melendez will show up to face Eddie Alvarez in the co-main event? Theirs is a fight that was years in the making, a former Bellator MMA champion in Alvarez paired with a former Strikeforce titleholder in Melendez. While Bellator founder Bjorn Rebney is nowhere to be found, his last tweet reads, ironically, “MEXICO.” Perhaps he will be watching.
I like Melendez to win this fight, and I believe he can do so in a variety of ways that should be beneficial to your Kountermove team. “El Nino” possesses the skills necessary to take a conservative approach with well-timed takedowns, clinches and dirty boxing to halt the heavy-handed Alvarez. We have seen Melendez take the strategic route with success in the past. However, if the Melendez that fought Diego Sanchez shows up, you may want to have a defibrillator standing by. That same approach could allow Alvarez to clip the Cesar Gracie protégé or maybe steal a decision that, on paper, would be incredibly difficult to earn.
As I said, I favor Melendez here; and while some of you may be a bit gunshy following the first stoppage loss -- he submitted to an Anthony Pettis guillotine at UFC 181 -- of his 26-fight career, I could not disagree more with such sentiment. That setback provides the motivation Melendez needs to fight smarter against someone as dangerous as Alvarez. Look for the former Strikeforce champ to use takedowns and an offensive clinch to frustrate Alvarez, rack up points and earn a decision.
There are a handful of locks on this card, as well. They included Tecia Torres, whom I like to stop Angela Hill. At $5,400 of your $25,000 payroll, the American Top Team rep is a better play and a safer bet than the cheaper Henry Cejudo ($5,200).
As always, compare your Kountermove team to the live betting lines, always double check your team following the weigh-ins and, of course, play responsibly. Best of luck this weekend.